Consensus PnL $225K · win rate 73% (849–308, n=1157) · was PM monthly #1000 · holds 34 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$224.9K
Record
849W / 308L
Win Rate
73.0%
of 1157 settled
Batting Avg
51.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#621
Source
PM monthly #1000 + pinned
Trades
46,000
Markets
1,650
Volume
$19.4M
Top consensus positions
34 in listed consensus markets · 22 of 34 on the consensus side (65%)- Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes $8.0K · now 56¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (25% of 8)
- Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?No $4.2K · now 98¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?No $3.5K · now 97¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?No $3.0K · now 96¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (95% of 20)
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?No $2.5K · now 92¢ · in at 19¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $2.3K · now 28¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Yes)
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?No $2.2K · now 87¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes $1.8K · now 91¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
Specialties
1,379 settled consensus markets · held side won 78% at an average entry of 75¢- Politics
+4 pts
side won 94% of 130 · avg entry 89¢
ROI +3%
- Tennis
+17 pts
side won 70% of 27 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +4%
- Entertainment
+7 pts
side won 80% of 65 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 55% of 65 at an average 58¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 13% of 185)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 46% of 103)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 63% of 157)
- 70¢ and up: 68%(won 96% of 934)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.