Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-09 House seat?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 25¢ · $490 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$490.31
$133.8
18¢ → 25¢
+39% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
671h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR | Yesavg 18.5¢ | $174.32 | $235.55 | +$61.23 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 16¢ | $77.57 | $121.2 | +$43.63 | 40% 704-1061 (1765) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.8¢ | $43.96 | $72 | +$24.92 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.5¢ | $25.7 | $31.35 | +$5.64 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
 GohstCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.3¢ | $28.51 | $27.14 | -$1.37 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
HO Hourglass<$100 | Noavg 84.9¢ | $3.33 | $3.07 | -$0.25 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
Invested
$174.32
Value
$235.55
PnL
+$61.23
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$77.57
Value
$121.2
PnL
+$43.63
Record
40%
704-1061 (1765)
Invested
$43.96
Value
$72
PnL
+$24.92
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$25.7
Value
$31.35
PnL
+$5.64
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
GohstCTR<$100Invested
$28.51
Value
$27.14
PnL
-$1.37
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
Invested
$3.33
Value
$3.07
PnL
-$0.25
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.