Will the Democratic Party win the TX-21 House seat?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$2.7K
$250.39
88.4¢ → 99.1¢
+12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
8 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Noavg 88.3¢ | $2.0K | $2.3K | +$244.23 | 61% 203-132 (335) |
LI lineth | Noavg 86¢ | $165.12 | $190.18 | +$24.96 | 41% 245-350 (595) |
TH TheImpasse | Noavg 95¢ | $135.85 | $141.64 | +$5.72 | 22% 145-528 (673) |
IM immanuelcan<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $51 | $86.81 | +$12.4 | 53% 906-789 (1695) |
 GayPrideCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.2¢ | $46.76 | $9.09 | -$37.68 | 49% 357-367 (724) |
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Noavg 87.1¢ | $5.49 | $6.24 | +$0.75 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
Invested
$2,015.01
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$244.23
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
Invested
$165.12
Value
$190.18
PnL
+$24.96
Record
41%
245-350 (595)
Invested
$135.85
Value
$141.64
PnL
+$5.72
Record
22%
145-528 (673)
Invested
$51
Value
$86.81
PnL
+$12.4
Record
53%
906-789 (1695)
GayPrideCTR<$100Invested
$46.76
Value
$9.09
PnL
-$37.68
Record
49%
357-367 (724)
Invested
$5.49
Value
$6.24
PnL
+$0.75
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.