Consensus PnL $654K · win rate 80% (401–100, n=501) · was PM monthly #997 · holds 28 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$654.3K
Record
401W / 100L
Win Rate
80.0%
of 501 settled
Batting Avg
54.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#435
Source
PM monthly #997
Trades
835
Markets
665
Volume
$17.7M
Top consensus positions
28 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 28 on the consensus side (54%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $9.5K · now 35¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (No)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No $8.0K · now 58¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes $7.2K · now 12¢ · in at 16¢against the consensus (No)
- Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?No $4.9K · now 88¢ · in at 34¢with the consensus (30% of 10)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $2.3K · now 10¢with the consensus (85% of 26)
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $2.0K · now 81¢ · in at 78¢against the consensus (Yes)
- US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?No $1.5K · now 97¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $907 · now 4¢with the consensus (92% of 25)
Specialties
500 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 65¢- Esports
+36 pts
side won 79% of 14 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +49%
- Geopolitics
+17 pts
side won 82% of 100 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +7%
- Elections
+16 pts
side won 73% of 126 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +15%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 30% of 106)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 74% of 62)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 94% of 62)
- 70¢ and up: 54%(won 99% of 270)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.