Will the Democratic Party win the TX-24 House seat?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$339.37

Smart Money Entry

78.1¢ → 95¢

+22% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,477

Combined PnL+$417.2

Yes4 traders

Total Value$64.46

Total Shares1,289

Combined PnL-$77.84

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4739h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

37 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Noavg 78.1¢	$1.9K	$2.3K	+$416.26	61% 203-132 (335)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 6¢	$195.62	$36.47	-$37.45	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$17.88	$14.9	-$2.98	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
IM immanuelcanCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$26.4	$9.84	-$29.82	53% 906-789 (1695)
TT tttt123<$100	Noavg 78¢	$4.33	$5.27	+$0.94	72% 1535-585 (2120)
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.8¢	$10.84	$3.25	-$7.59	51% 2097-1976 (4073)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Invested

$1,931.94

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$416.26

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$195.62

Value

$36.47

PnL

-$37.45

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.88

Value

$14.9

PnL

-$2.98

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

immanuelcanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.4

Value

$9.84

PnL

-$29.82

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

tttt123<$100

Invested

$4.33

Value

$5.27

PnL

+$0.94

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.84

Value

$3.25

PnL

-$7.59

Record

51%

2097-1976 (4073)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4739h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

37 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.