Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 86¢ · $680 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$680.07
$77.05
74.8¢ → 86.3¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
4825h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
30 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GayPrideCTR | Yesavg 16.2¢ | $202.75 | $175.63 | -$27.12 | 49% 357-367 (724) |
LI lineth | Noavg 79¢ | $151.68 | $164.54 | +$12.48 | 41% 245-350 (595) |
CO cowcat | Noavg 69.4¢ | $81.58 | $160.75 | +$23.35 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
SB sbimbgCTR | Yesavg 7.8¢ | $85.65 | $153.38 | +$67.73 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 85.7¢ | $17.14 | $17.14 | +$0 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
LO Loyalty-CrashCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $7.51 | $8.12 | +$0.61 | 62% 45-28 (73) |
GayPrideCTRInvested
$202.75
Value
$175.63
PnL
-$27.12
Record
49%
357-367 (724)
Invested
$151.68
Value
$164.54
PnL
+$12.48
Record
41%
245-350 (595)
Invested
$81.58
Value
$160.75
PnL
+$23.35
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$85.65
Value
$153.38
PnL
+$67.73
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Invested
$17.14
Value
$17.14
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$7.51
Value
$8.12
PnL
+$0.61
Record
62%
45-28 (73)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.