Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$2.1K
-$9.94
95.2¢ → 96.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
749h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$11.63 | 49% 2602-2659 (5261) |
 Valen9 | Noavg 93.6¢ | $368.1 | $380.34 | +$11.99 | 60% 407-274 (681) |
 probability | Noavg 92.7¢ | $141.55 | $147.57 | +$6.03 | 41% 1400-2008 (3408) |
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $156.82 | $104.65 | -$38.38 | 40% 704-1065 (1769) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $4.94 | $4.93 | -$0.01 | 35% 711-1330 (2041) |
 ImJustKenCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $3.44 | $2.24 | -$1.21 | 53% 3043-2720 (5763) |
Invested
$1,482.02
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$11.63
Record
49%
2602-2659 (5261)
Valen9Invested
$368.1
Value
$380.34
PnL
+$11.99
Record
60%
407-274 (681)
probabilityInvested
$141.55
Value
$147.57
PnL
+$6.03
Record
41%
1400-2008 (3408)
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$156.82
Value
$104.65
PnL
-$38.38
Record
40%
704-1065 (1769)
Invested
$4.94
Value
$4.93
PnL
-$0.01
Record
35%
711-1330 (2041)
ImJustKenCTR<$100Invested
$3.44
Value
$2.24
PnL
-$1.21
Record
53%
3043-2720 (5763)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.