Will the Democrats win the Connecticut governor race in 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 98¢ · $889 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$888.55
$13.87
96.3¢ → 97.8¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Late
494h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Yesavg 97.3¢ | $333.49 | $335.16 | +$1.49 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
VO Votei14Voude22 | Yesavg 98.2¢ | $222 | $221.69 | -$0.31 | 78% 341-99 (440) |
 bernardbulletin | Yesavg 93¢ | $137.93 | $144.97 | +$6.97 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
TH TheFOMCGambler | Yesavg 94¢ | $101.83 | $105.89 | +$4.01 | 76% 102-32 (134) |
 probability<$100 | Yesavg 96.6¢ | $50.91 | $51.51 | +$0.55 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
 Ryxon21<$100 | Yesavg 94¢ | $28.2 | $29.33 | +$1.16 | 71% 318-130 (448) |
Invested
$333.49
Value
$335.16
PnL
+$1.49
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
Invested
$222
Value
$221.69
PnL
-$0.31
Record
78%
341-99 (440)
bernardbulletinInvested
$137.93
Value
$144.97
PnL
+$6.97
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
Invested
$101.83
Value
$105.89
PnL
+$4.01
Record
76%
102-32 (134)
probability<$100Invested
$50.91
Value
$51.51
PnL
+$0.55
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Ryxon21<$100Invested
$28.2
Value
$29.33
PnL
+$1.16
Record
71%
318-130 (448)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.