Consensus PnL $4.6K · win rate 75% (90–30, n=120) · was PM monthly #912 · holds 38 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$4.6K
Record
90W / 30L
Win Rate
75.0%
of 120 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#583
Source
PM monthly #912
Trades
122
Markets
207
Volume
$170.6K
Top consensus positions
38 in listed consensus markets · 35 of 38 on the consensus side (92%)- Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.9K · now 89¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (57% of 28)
- Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.2K · now 92¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.1K · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
- Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.6K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?Yes $931 · now 98¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?Yes $927 · now 94¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (89% of 9)
- Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?Yes $842 · now 98¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (100% of 21)
- Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?Yes $770 · now 91¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (65% of 17)
Specialties
124 settled consensus markets · held side won 79% at an average entry of 82¢- Economy
+4 pts
side won 82% of 11 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +32%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 91% of 22 at an average 93¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 6% of 16)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 50% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 33% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 83%(won 92% of 103)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.