Consensus PnL $85K · win rate 81% (240–58, n=298) · was PM monthly #246 · holds 16 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$84.6K
Record
240W / 58L
Win Rate
81.0%
of 298 settled
Batting Avg
70.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#411
Source
PM monthly #246 + pinned
Trades
17,768
Markets
481
Volume
$5.3M
Top consensus positions
16 in listed consensus markets · 16 of 16 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $125K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No $74K · now 89¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (55% of 38)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $51K · now 95¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?Yes $14K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (93% of 14)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Yes $14K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?Yes $13K · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (69% of 13)
- US x Cuba military clash in 2026?No $5.7K · now 83¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (53% of 15)
- Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?Yes $1.4K · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (96% of 23)
Specialties
393 settled consensus markets · held side won 93% at an average entry of 85¢- Finance
+11 pts
side won 100% of 52 · avg entry 89¢
ROI +7%
- Geopolitics
+8 pts
side won 90% of 179 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +13%
- MLB
+8 pts
side won 100% of 51 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +7%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 13% of 8)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 79% of 14)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 89% of 28)
- 70¢ and up: 87%(won 96% of 343)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.