Will the Democrats win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$2.1K
$64.48
95.5¢ → 99.3¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
1798h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IN insidero | Yesavg 98.1¢ | $884.44 | $894.36 | +$9.47 | 76% 291-93 (384) |
TH TheFOMCGambler | Yesavg 91.9¢ | $497.14 | $657.49 | +$48.66 | 76% 102-32 (134) |
QM QMG-CORE | Yesavg 95.6¢ | $444.07 | $460.79 | +$14.17 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
 elmcap2<$100 | Yesavg 98¢ | $35 | $34.69 | +$0.39 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
 bernardbulletin<$100 | Yesavg 95.4¢ | $9.55 | $9.93 | +$0.33 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Noavg 1.9¢ | $15.64 | $6.2 | -$8.52 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
Invested
$884.44
Value
$894.36
PnL
+$9.47
Record
76%
291-93 (384)
Invested
$497.14
Value
$657.49
PnL
+$48.66
Record
76%
102-32 (134)
Invested
$444.07
Value
$460.79
PnL
+$14.17
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
elmcap2<$100Invested
$35
Value
$34.69
PnL
+$0.39
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
bernardbulletin<$100Invested
$9.55
Value
$9.93
PnL
+$0.33
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
Invested
$15.64
Value
$6.2
PnL
-$8.52
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.