Will the Democrats win the Maryland governor race in 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 99¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$7.1K
$185.45
96.3¢ → 99.3¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
4825h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Yesavg 97.7¢ | $4.2K | $4.3K | +$57.96 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
 ImJustKen | Yesavg 93.6¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$97.98 | 53% 3036-2716 (5752) |
 Ryxon21 | Yesavg 94.4¢ | $710.72 | $746.57 | +$35.85 | 71% 318-130 (448) |
 elmcap2 | Yesavg 98¢ | $285.39 | $283.11 | +$3.51 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.1¢ | $3.88 | $1 | -$2.88 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Noavg 6.8¢ | $7.91 | $0.93 | -$6.98 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
Invested
$4,188.27
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$57.96
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
ImJustKenInvested
$1,681.46
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$97.98
Record
53%
3036-2716 (5752)
Ryxon21Invested
$710.72
Value
$746.57
PnL
+$35.85
Record
71%
318-130 (448)
elmcap2Invested
$285.39
Value
$283.11
PnL
+$3.51
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$3.88
Value
$1
PnL
-$2.88
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$7.91
Value
$0.93
PnL
-$6.98
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.