Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$3.3K
$77.43
97¢ → 99.6¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Late
1580h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 elmcap2 | Yesavg 98¢ | $1.0K | $995 | +$15 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
QM QMG-CORE | Yesavg 99.1¢ | $937.37 | $939.41 | +$1.57 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
 probability | Yesavg 93.9¢ | $752.75 | $783.32 | +$44.17 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
 DEGENKHAN | Yesavg 94.1¢ | $272.09 | $285.09 | +$13 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Yesavg 98.4¢ | $212.52 | $214.43 | +$1.91 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 93.8¢ | $32.64 | $34.43 | +$1.78 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
elmcap2Invested
$1,000
Value
$995
PnL
+$15
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
Invested
$937.37
Value
$939.41
PnL
+$1.57
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
probabilityInvested
$752.75
Value
$783.32
PnL
+$44.17
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
DEGENKHANInvested
$272.09
Value
$285.09
PnL
+$13
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
Invested
$212.52
Value
$214.43
PnL
+$1.91
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$32.64
Value
$34.43
PnL
+$1.78
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.