Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 92¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$1.1K
-$148.59
85.5¢ → 92.3¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
318h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
12 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AngryRhino | Noavg 89.7¢ | $582.7 | $599.44 | +$16.74 | 69% 133-59 (192) |
 ImJustKenCTR | Yesavg 16.2¢ | $453.85 | $213.53 | -$226.58 | 53% 3036-2716 (5752) |
CO cowcat | Noavg 66.2¢ | $109.94 | $152.99 | +$43.05 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $50.99 | $69.6 | +$18.16 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Noavg 92.3¢ | $61.34 | $61.37 | +$0.03 | 56% 15371-11922 (27293) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.2¢ | $0.14 | $0.15 | +$0.01 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
AngryRhinoInvested
$582.7
Value
$599.44
PnL
+$16.74
Record
69%
133-59 (192)
ImJustKenCTRInvested
$453.85
Value
$213.53
PnL
-$226.58
Record
53%
3036-2716 (5752)
Invested
$109.94
Value
$152.99
PnL
+$43.05
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$50.99
Value
$69.6
PnL
+$18.16
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$61.34
Value
$61.37
PnL
+$0.03
Record
56%
15371-11922 (27293)
Invested
$0.14
Value
$0.15
PnL
+$0.01
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.