Consensus PnL $26K · win rate 80% (116–29, n=145) · was PM monthly #961 · holds 24 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$25.8K
Record
116W / 29L
Win Rate
80.0%
of 145 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#440
Source
PM monthly #961
Trades
657
Markets
279
Volume
$2.0M
Top consensus positions
24 in listed consensus markets · 24 of 24 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $49K · now 99¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (83% of 48)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $34K · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (94% of 47)
- Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?No $25K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Yes $24K · now 89¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (57% of 28)
- Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?No $22K · now 89¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (61% of 18)
- US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No $14K · now 97¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (89% of 27)
- Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?No $7.5K · now 96¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?Yes $4.9K · now 99¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
Specialties
180 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 74¢- Geopolitics
+10 pts
side won 90% of 63 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +2%
- Elections
+8 pts
side won 88% of 40 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +6%
- Soccer
+20 pts
side won 90% of 10 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +11%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 29% of 17)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 63% of 19)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 86% of 21)
- 70¢ and up: 68%(won 97% of 123)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.