Will the Democrats win the South Carolina governor race in 2026?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $407 held · ends Nov 4

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$407.13

Combined PnL

$4.96

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 94.8¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$357.05

Total Shares377

Combined PnL+$19.21

Yes3 traders

Total Value$50.09

Total Shares954

Combined PnL-$14.25

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

140h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HotDogs	Noavg 89¢	$268.99	$286.52	+$17.53	94% 442-28 (470)
CO cowcat<$100	Noavg 91.8¢	$51.06	$52.65	+$1.67	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$43.53	$29.77	-$14.32	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$19.55	$19.06	-$0.49	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$17.87	$17.88	+$0.01	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.7	$1.26	+$0.56	42% 1368-1924 (3292)

HotDogs

Invested

$268.99

Value

$286.52

PnL

+$17.53

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

cowcat<$100

Invested

$51.06

Value

$52.65

PnL

+$1.67

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.53

Value

$29.77

PnL

-$14.32

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.55

Value

$19.06

PnL

-$0.49

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$17.87

Value

$17.88

PnL

+$0.01

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$1.26

PnL

+$0.56

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

140h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.9%

94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.