Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 12¢ · $1K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$1.2K
$454.73
7.3¢ → 11.5¢
+58% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 12%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Late
720h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
16 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BT BTCGambler247CTR | Yesavg 7¢ | $291.23 | $478.45 | +$187.26 | 47% 217-240 (457) |
 NooseracCTR | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $199.93 | $323.88 | +$123.96 | 52% 5832-5416 (11248) |
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 8.6¢ | $214.18 | $286.45 | +$72.28 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $11.32 | $49.45 | +$38.13 | 45% 1905-2348 (4253) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yes | $41.45 | $41.45 | +$31.97 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $24.9 | $26.03 | +$1.13 | 57% 3068-2356 (5424) |
Invested
$291.23
Value
$478.45
PnL
+$187.26
Record
47%
217-240 (457)
NooseracCTRInvested
$199.93
Value
$323.88
PnL
+$123.96
Record
52%
5832-5416 (11248)
Invested
$214.18
Value
$286.45
PnL
+$72.28
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
Invested
$11.32
Value
$49.45
PnL
+$38.13
Record
45%
1905-2348 (4253)
Invested
$41.45
Value
$41.45
PnL
+$31.97
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$24.9
Value
$26.03
PnL
+$1.13
Record
57%
3068-2356 (5424)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.