Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 99¢ · $669 held · ends Jan 28, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
$668.97
$-1.9K
99.1¢ → 99.1¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
926h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 99¢ | $494.38 | $494.6 | +$0.22 | 49% 383-404 (787) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.5¢ | $162.5 | $161.78 | -$0.73 | 38% 93-154 (247) |
E4 e46m3CTR | Yesavg 20¢ | $3.0K | $5.1 | $-1.8K | 39% 179-277 (456) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $54.44 | $2.59 | -$51.86 | — 4-3 (7) |
PL pleaseletmealoneCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $40 | $1.9 | -$38.1 | — 0-3 (3) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $36.45 | $1.73 | -$34.72 | 40% 153-230 (383) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $0.81 | $1.28 | +$0.47 | 54% 19-16 (35) |
Invested
$494.38
Value
$494.6
PnL
+$0.22
Record
49%
383-404 (787)
Invested
$162.5
Value
$161.78
PnL
-$0.73
Record
38%
93-154 (247)
Invested
$3,011.5
Value
$5.1
PnL
$-1.8K
Record
39%
179-277 (456)
Invested
$54.44
Value
$2.59
PnL
-$51.86
Record
—
4-3 (7)
Invested
$40
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$38.1
Record
—
0-3 (3)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$36.45
Value
$1.73
PnL
-$34.72
Record
40%
153-230 (383)
Invested
$0.81
Value
$1.28
PnL
+$0.47
Record
54%
19-16 (35)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.