Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the Green Bay Packers make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
-$77.09
54.6¢ → 49.5¢
-9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN ancianoCTR | Noavg 58¢ | $984.25 | $830.86 | -$142.98 | 52% 1167-1072 (2239) |
 TimeTravelerARB<$100 | Noavg 47.6¢ | $346.96 | $441.59 | +$96.59 | 41% 2001-2835 (4836) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 32.2¢ | $157.55 | $249.45 | +$89.18 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 47.6¢ | $186.69 | $192.14 | +$7.41 | |
0X 0x53eCc53E7 | Yesavg 42.1¢ | $520.46 | $425.51 | +$57.13 | 43% 469-622 (1091) |
BA ballincoCTR | Noavg 48¢ | $351.28 | $362.25 | +$10.98 | 52% 153-140 (293) |
 extractive-manateeCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $75.91 | $76.68 | +$0.77 | 33% 537-1072 (1609) |
AB ABC12345654321<$100 | Yesavg 52.4¢ | $78.28 | $28.45 | -$2.99 | 50% 1694-1680 (3374) |
Invested
$984.25
Value
$830.86
PnL
-$142.98
Record
52%
1167-1072 (2239)
TimeTravelerARB<$100Invested
$346.96
Value
$441.59
PnL
+$96.59
Record
41%
2001-2835 (4836)
Both legs:
Invested
$520.46
Value
$425.51
PnL
+$57.13
Record
43%
469-622 (1091)
Invested
$351.28
Value
$362.25
PnL
+$10.98
Record
52%
153-140 (293)
extractive-manateeCTR<$100Invested
$75.91
Value
$76.68
PnL
+$0.77
Record
33%
537-1072 (1609)
Invested
$78.28
Value
$28.45
PnL
-$2.99
Record
50%
1694-1680 (3374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.