Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $372 held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$372.03

Combined PnL

-$364.03

Smart Money Entry

0.5¢ → 0.3¢

-51% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$337.52

Total Shares135,008

Combined PnL-$364.25

No3 traders

Total Value$34.51

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$0.21

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

25 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL flawfenceCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$484.25	$184.58	-$299.68	46% 271-319 (590)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 0.2¢	$102.6	$105.61	+$5.36	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$117.27	$47.34	-$69.93	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$24.33	$24.54	+$0.21	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$4.99	$4.99	+$0	73% 41-15 (56)
DI Diabolical-Prize<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5	$4.99	+$0	48% 175-192 (367)

flawfenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$484.25

Value

$184.58

PnL

-$299.68

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$102.6

Value

$105.61

PnL

+$5.36

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$117.27

Value

$47.34

PnL

-$69.93

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$24.33

Value

$24.54

PnL

+$0.21

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

Diabolical-Prize<$100

Invested

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

175-192 (367)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

25 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.