Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 73¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 11, 2027

Yes73¢No27¢Ends Mon, Jan 11, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$132.68

Smart Money Entry

62.6¢ → 73¢

+17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,819

Combined PnL+$188.7

No3 traders

Total Value$278.56

Total Shares1,003

Combined PnL-$56.02

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YoungAlphaGoat	Yesavg 62.8¢	$586.81	$681.82	+$95.01	45% 383-477 (860)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Yesavg 63¢	$548.11	$635.11	+$87	— 7-5 (12)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 34.8¢	$265.48	$206.24	-$59.25	35% 16955-31322 (48277)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 25.5¢	$56.9	$67.94	+$3.24	53% 7528-6656 (14184)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 28.4¢	$3.74	$10.42	+$6.69	28% 5957-15587 (21544)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 27.1¢	$4.39	$4.38	-$0.01	37% 758-1274 (2032)

YoungAlphaGoat

Yes

Invested

$586.81

Value

$681.82

PnL

+$95.01

Record

45%

383-477 (860)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Yes

Invested

$548.11

Value

$635.11

PnL

+$87

Record

—

7-5 (12)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$265.48

Value

$206.24

PnL

-$59.25

Record

35%

16955-31322 (48277)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$56.9

Value

$67.94

PnL

+$3.24

Record

53%

7528-6656 (14184)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.74

Value

$10.42

PnL

+$6.69

Record

28%

5957-15587 (21544)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$4.39

Value

$4.38

PnL

-$0.01

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.