Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the median home value in the US be between $403,000 and $407,000 on December 31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 46¢ · $914 held · ends Jan 11, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$913.86
$138.56
61.6¢ → 46¢
-25% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 66.7¢ | $634.78 | $413.62 | -$117.84 | 18% 365-1640 (2005) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 66.7¢ | $360.8 | $254.18 | -$144.65 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43.3¢ | $130.12 | $159.44 | +$26.81 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 61.3¢ | $954.98 | $407.84 | +$152.7 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $45 | $37 | -$8 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 65.8¢ | $41.95 | $33.8 | -$8.15 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Noavg 54.3¢ | $7.79 | $11 | +$3.21 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $11.8 | $10.6 | -$1.2 | 61% 21345-13641 (34986) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$634.78
Value
$413.62
PnL
-$117.84
Record
18%
365-1640 (2005)
Both legs:
Invested
$954.98
Value
$407.84
PnL
+$152.7
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$45
Value
$37
PnL
-$8
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
Invested
$41.95
Value
$33.8
PnL
-$8.15
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Invested
$7.79
Value
$11
PnL
+$3.21
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$11.8
Value
$10.6
PnL
-$1.2
Record
61%
21345-13641 (34986)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.