Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 7.3¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$1.8K
$748.4
4.3¢ → 7.3¢
+69% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 7%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
722h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
27 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $292.08 | $808.84 | +$516.76 | 11% 20-165 (185) |
 LiquidatedDegenCTR | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $531.19 | $615.8 | +$84.62 | 42% 1081-1477 (2558) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $180.54 | $283.15 | +$113.11 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
BT BTCGambler247CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $80.98 | $98.55 | +$17.57 | 47% 217-240 (457) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $9.21 | $25.55 | +$16.34 | 45% 1906-2352 (4258) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $4.65 | $4.65 | +$0 | 76% 11357-3525 (14882) |
Invested
$292.08
Value
$808.84
PnL
+$516.76
Record
11%
20-165 (185)
LiquidatedDegenCTRInvested
$531.19
Value
$615.8
PnL
+$84.62
Record
42%
1081-1477 (2558)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$180.54
Value
$283.15
PnL
+$113.11
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$80.98
Value
$98.55
PnL
+$17.57
Record
47%
217-240 (457)
Invested
$9.21
Value
$25.55
PnL
+$16.34
Record
45%
1906-2352 (4258)
Invested
$4.65
Value
$4.65
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11357-3525 (14882)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.