Will the New England Patriots have more than 11.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 74¢ · $491 held · ends Feb 16, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$491.23
$54.77
72.5¢ → 73.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x53eCc53E7 | Noavg 72¢ | $249.2 | $307.91 | +$58.71 | 43% 470-622 (1092) |
AB ABC12345654321ARB<$100 | Yesavg 23.3¢ | $48.79 | $70.88 | +$22.08 | 50% 1696-1690 (3386) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 23.3¢ | $98.14 | $46.36 | +$17.41 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 72¢ | $19.84 | $24.52 | +$4.68 | |
BA banepir<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $53.93 | $61.53 | -$4.49 | 49% 460-477 (937) |
 JustADonk<$100 | Noavg 67.6¢ | $26.71 | $28.13 | +$1.42 | 55% 921-756 (1677) |
 extractive-manatee<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $23.65 | $22.79 | -$0.87 | 33% 539-1081 (1620) |
Invested
$249.2
Value
$307.91
PnL
+$58.71
Record
43%
470-622 (1092)
Invested
$48.79
Value
$70.88
PnL
+$22.08
Record
50%
1696-1690 (3386)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.93
Value
$61.53
PnL
-$4.49
Record
49%
460-477 (937)
JustADonk<$100Invested
$26.71
Value
$28.13
PnL
+$1.42
Record
55%
921-756 (1677)
extractive-manatee<$100Invested
$23.65
Value
$22.79
PnL
-$0.87
Record
33%
539-1081 (1620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.