Consensus PnL $22K · win rate 50% (453–446, n=899) · was PM monthly #978 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$22.4K
Record
453W / 446L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 899 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1922
Source
PM monthly #978
Record (90 d)
152/196 · 78%
Trades
808
Markets
1,039
Volume
$2.0M
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Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 9 on the consensus side (56%)- Spread: Ohio (-14.5)Akron $855 · now 61¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (52% of 27)
- Avalanche vs. Blue JacketsBlue Jackets $713 · now 63¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (36% of 39)
- Hurricanes vs. PredatorsPredators $690 · now 35¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (Hurricanes)
- Will the Dallas Cowboys make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?No $306 · now 68¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (89% of 10)
- Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?No $270 · now 19¢ · in at 27¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Blues vs. RangersRangers $196 · now 53¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (43% of 22)
- Will New Orleans Saints win the 2026 NFC South?Yes $120 · now 11¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the New England Patriots have more than 11.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?No $62 · now 74¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
882 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 48¢- College Football
+39 pts
side won 91% of 35 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +19%
- MLB
+22 pts
side won 70% of 53 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +12%
- NFL
+17 pts
side won 66% of 44 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 43% of 47 at an average 46¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 15% of 73)
- 30–50¢: 42%(won 50% of 373)
- 50–70¢: 43%(won 62% of 380)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 86% of 56)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.