Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the New York Knicks be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 16¢ · $848 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$848.04
-$264.47
16.5¢ → 15.5¢
-6% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
365h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR | Yesavg 15¢ | $457.66 | $472.58 | +$14.92 | 45% 2406-2976 (5382) |
ND ndb1CTR | Yesavg 18¢ | $117 | $165.83 | -$26.75 | 66% 925-481 (1406) |
 DEGENKHANCTR | Yesavg 18.6¢ | $166.78 | $137.88 | -$28.9 | 66% 1109-565 (1674) |
AN ancianoCTR | Yesavg 19¢ | $1.6K | $52.78 | -$225.38 | 52% 1173-1078 (2251) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.5¢ | $11.82 | $14.84 | +$3.02 | 55% 3081-2481 (5562) |
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $4.41 | $3.26 | -$1.15 | 50% 6059-6159 (12218) |
 BigRabbitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $0.99 | $0.77 | -$0.22 | 40% 706-1070 (1776) |
Invested
$457.66
Value
$472.58
PnL
+$14.92
Record
45%
2406-2976 (5382)
Invested
$117
Value
$165.83
PnL
-$26.75
Record
66%
925-481 (1406)
DEGENKHANCTRInvested
$166.78
Value
$137.88
PnL
-$28.9
Record
66%
1109-565 (1674)
Invested
$1,605.43
Value
$52.78
PnL
-$225.38
Record
52%
1173-1078 (2251)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$11.82
Value
$14.84
PnL
+$3.02
Record
55%
3081-2481 (5562)
Invested
$4.41
Value
$3.26
PnL
-$1.15
Record
50%
6059-6159 (12218)
BigRabbitCTR<$100Invested
$0.99
Value
$0.77
PnL
-$0.22
Record
40%
706-1070 (1776)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.