Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 44¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$3.2K
-$539.92
66.2¢ → 44¢
-34% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
649h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE dedidancCTR | Noavg 65.6¢ | $2.1K | $2.6K | -$686.62 | 57% 103-77 (180) |
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR | Noavg 70¢ | $396.25 | $436.95 | -$131.37 | 50% 415-417 (832) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 33.8¢ | $351.92 | $71.62 | +$122.95 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
XC xcaiox | Yesavg 25.9¢ | $107.3 | $70.55 | +$129.25 | 77% 200-61 (261) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 25.4¢ | $17.98 | $8.62 | +$18.11 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
TH thoodr<$100 | Yesavg 40.5¢ | $0.22 | $7.98 | +$7.76 | 96% 631-24 (655) |
Invested
$2,085.07
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$686.62
Record
57%
103-77 (180)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTRInvested
$396.25
Value
$436.95
PnL
-$131.37
Record
50%
415-417 (832)
Invested
$351.92
Value
$71.62
PnL
+$122.95
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
Invested
$107.3
Value
$70.55
PnL
+$129.25
Record
77%
200-61 (261)
2B9S<$100Invested
$17.98
Value
$8.62
PnL
+$18.11
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
Invested
$0.22
Value
$7.98
PnL
+$7.76
Record
96%
631-24 (655)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.