Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (87%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 14¢ · $135 held · ended Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$134.51
-$15.86
Research grade
AvoidNo at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 87%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
227h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Yesavg 86¢ | $76.4 | $76.4 | -$0 | 48% 1225-1315 (2540) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 16¢ | $33.45 | $32.18 | -$1.26 | 41% 3084-4451 (7535) |
 HoshinoAICTR<$100 | Noavg 22.1¢ | $41.15 | $17.57 | -$14.6 | 50% 10-10 (20) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 83¢ | $4.15 | $4.3 | +$0.15 | 78% 18-5 (23) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $4.2 | $4.05 | -$0.15 | 25% 839-2481 (3320) |
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$76.4
Value
$76.4
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
1225-1315 (2540)
Invested
$33.45
Value
$32.18
PnL
-$1.26
Record
41%
3084-4451 (7535)
HoshinoAICTR<$100Invested
$41.15
Value
$17.57
PnL
-$14.6
Record
50%
10-10 (20)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$4.3
PnL
+$0.15
Record
78%
18-5 (23)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$4.05
PnL
-$0.15
Record
25%
839-2481 (3320)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.