Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.65 and $0.70 on November 30, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 46¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
2 arb excluded
$1.5K
$425.54
74.4¢ → 45.5¢
-39% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Mature
31h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoat | Yes | $852.49 | $852.49 | +$491.38 | 44% 393-491 (884) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 74.3¢ | $303.7 | $270.82 | -$21.89 | 16% 427-2295 (2722) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.1¢ | $73.54 | $160.8 | +$86.01 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74.3¢ | $209.6 | $110.03 | -$107.89 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 68.8¢ | $507.42 | $230.6 | +$80.29 | 35% 17512-32753 (50265) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 22.3¢ | $63.81 | $163.39 | +$198.63 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68.8¢ | $118.51 | $67.21 | -$118.34 | |
WA WarriorHCTR | Noavg 78¢ | $92.48 | $60.75 | -$31.73 | 17% 1063-5309 (6372) |
 GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100 | Noavg 76.2¢ | $91.4 | $46.8 | -$37.4 | 51% 540-527 (1067) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Yesavg 32.2¢ | $10.08 | $17.84 | +$4.16 | 27% 6631-18348 (24979) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $9.46 | $8.58 | -$0.88 | 25% 302-922 (1224) |
YoungAlphaGoatInvested
$852.49
Value
$852.49
PnL
+$491.38
Record
44%
393-491 (884)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$303.7
Value
$270.82
PnL
-$21.89
Record
16%
427-2295 (2722)
Both legs:
Invested
$507.42
Value
$230.6
PnL
+$80.29
Record
35%
17512-32753 (50265)
Both legs:
Invested
$92.48
Value
$60.75
PnL
-$31.73
Record
17%
1063-5309 (6372)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100Invested
$91.4
Value
$46.8
PnL
-$37.4
Record
51%
540-527 (1067)
Invested
$10.08
Value
$17.84
PnL
+$4.16
Record
27%
6631-18348 (24979)
Invested
$9.46
Value
$8.58
PnL
-$0.88
Record
25%
302-922 (1224)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.