Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Phoenix Suns make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 30¢ · $1K held

Yes30¢No70¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$42.38

Smart Money Entry

45.4¢ → 29.5¢

-35% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$676.72

Total Shares1,030

Combined PnL+$179.47

Yes3 traders

Total Value$462.65

Total Shares1,341

Combined PnL-$221.86

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Noavg 47¢	$449.06	$625.82	+$176.76	52% 5948-5557 (11505)
ND ndb1CTR	Yesavg 46¢	$416.72	$419.51	-$216.01	66% 940-495 (1435)
AB ABC12345654321<$100	Noavg 62.2¢	$71.39	$44.43	+$2.55	48% 1884-2013 (3897)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 42.6¢	$104.5	$36.26	-$8.24	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$4.49	$6.88	+$2.39	41% 2019-2860 (4879)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 59¢	$6.29	$6.46	+$0.17	58% 19471-14317 (33788)

CUTJALENHURTS

Invested

$449.06

Value

$625.82

PnL

+$176.76

Record

52%

5948-5557 (11505)

ndb1CTR

Yes

Invested

$416.72

Value

$419.51

PnL

-$216.01

Record

66%

940-495 (1435)

ABC12345654321<$100

Invested

$71.39

Value

$44.43

PnL

+$2.55

Record

48%

1884-2013 (3897)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$104.5

Value

$36.26

PnL

-$8.24

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.49

Value

$6.88

PnL

+$2.39

Record

41%

2019-2860 (4879)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.29

Value

$6.46

PnL

+$0.17

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.