Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-04 House election by 55%-60%?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 77¢ · $923 held · ends Nov 4

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$923.14

Combined PnL

$16.54

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 77¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$869.43

Total Shares779

Combined PnL+$2.41

Yes3 traders

Total Value$52.77

Total Shares249

Combined PnL+$14.13

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 72.9¢	$744.74	$478.69	+$8.21	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
Istaroth	Noavg 73¢	$384.87	$374.84	-$5.9	18% 365-1640 (2005)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.9¢	$23.32	$36.12	+$12.8	— 7-2 (9)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 79¢	$15.8	$15.9	+$0.1	61% 21345-13641 (34986)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$13.3	$14.35	+$1.05	59% 3430-2345 (5775)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$2.02	$2.3	+$0.28	36% 2086-3721 (5807)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$744.74

Value

$478.69

PnL

+$8.21

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

Istaroth

Invested

$384.87

Value

$374.84

PnL

-$5.9

Record

18%

365-1640 (2005)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.32

Value

$36.12

PnL

+$12.8

Record

—

7-2 (9)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$15.8

Value

$15.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

61%

21345-13641 (34986)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.3

Value

$14.35

PnL

+$1.05

Record

59%

3430-2345 (5775)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.02

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.28

Record

36%

2086-3721 (5807)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.7%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.