Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Senate election by 3%-6%?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 77¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
1 arb excluded
$3.3K
$157.91
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
37h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL Albert 1953 | Noavg 69¢ | $1.7K | $1.9K | +$188.13 | 50% 1093-1094 (2187) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 72.4¢ | $922.48 | $742.72 | -$44.47 | 18% 365-1640 (2005) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 72.4¢ | $537.77 | $557.04 | +$13.55 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30.3¢ | $225.25 | $185.68 | -$58.01 | |
ZE zerosmartCTR | Yesavg 24¢ | $275.98 | $287.48 | +$11.5 | 48% 66-72 (138) |
PI piepedCTR | Yesavg 31.7¢ | $217.63 | $164.64 | -$42.7 | 42% 71-100 (171) |
SH shiifooCTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $139.15 | $123.84 | -$15.31 | 59% 3430-2345 (5775) |
LO Loyalty-CrashCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $68.78 | $86.87 | +$16.29 | 62% 45-28 (73) |
Invested
$1,738.14
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$188.13
Record
50%
1093-1094 (2187)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$922.48
Value
$742.72
PnL
-$44.47
Record
18%
365-1640 (2005)
Both legs:
Invested
$275.98
Value
$287.48
PnL
+$11.5
Record
48%
66-72 (138)
Invested
$217.63
Value
$164.64
PnL
-$42.7
Record
42%
71-100 (171)
Invested
$139.15
Value
$123.84
PnL
-$15.31
Record
59%
3430-2345 (5775)
Invested
$68.78
Value
$86.87
PnL
+$16.29
Record
62%
45-28 (73)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.