Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 59¢ · $589 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$588.92
-$10.38
60.7¢ → 58.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
450h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Yesavg 64.5¢ | $260.63 | $228.39 | -$19.35 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 56¢ | $57.78 | $213.05 | -$8.01 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $62 | $83 | +$21 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
CO cowcat<$100 | Yesavg 60.6¢ | $19.99 | $37.49 | -$0.82 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Yesavg 64¢ | $22.16 | $23.58 | -$1.98 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
 Ryxon21<$100 | Yesavg 80¢ | $4.6 | $3.42 | -$1.21 | 71% 318-130 (448) |
Invested
$260.63
Value
$228.39
PnL
-$19.35
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
Invested
$57.78
Value
$213.05
PnL
-$8.01
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$62
Value
$83
PnL
+$21
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
Invested
$19.99
Value
$37.49
PnL
-$0.82
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$22.16
Value
$23.58
PnL
-$1.98
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Ryxon21<$100Invested
$4.6
Value
$3.42
PnL
-$1.21
Record
71%
318-130 (448)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.