Will the Republican Party win the CA-22 House seat?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$1.6K
-$0.25
90.8¢ → 92.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
45h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 mrworldwide | Noavg 90.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$26.5 | 69% 804-359 (1163) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $63.12 | $59.15 | +$0.26 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $43.44 | $38.01 | -$2.72 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.4¢ | $43.38 | $20.23 | -$23.15 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
SB sbimbgCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $18.4 | $16.1 | -$1.15 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $8.44 | $8.44 | +$0 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
mrworldwideInvested
$1,416.5
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$26.5
Record
69%
804-359 (1163)
Invested
$63.12
Value
$59.15
PnL
+$0.26
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$43.44
Value
$38.01
PnL
-$2.72
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
Invested
$43.38
Value
$20.23
PnL
-$23.15
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$18.4
Value
$16.1
PnL
-$1.15
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Invested
$8.44
Value
$8.44
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.