Will the Republican Party win the CA-45 House seat?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 94¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$4.5K
-$11.47
92.6¢ → 93.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
721h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SI SitsToPee | Noavg 92.5¢ | $1.6K | $3.7K | -$1.13 | 61% 284-182 (466) |
AN anciano | Noavg 95¢ | $420 | $394.8 | -$4.2 | 52% 1161-1067 (2228) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Yesavg 6.4¢ | $166.45 | $155.14 | -$11.32 | 56% 18370-14706 (33076) |
TT tttt123 | Noavg 88.7¢ | $115.3 | $122.2 | +$6.9 | 72% 1537-588 (2125) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $85.3 | $69.94 | -$4.35 | 50% 1694-1680 (3374) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $211.96 | $12.7 | +$2.63 | 48% 6236-6891 (13127) |
Invested
$1,579.88
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$1.13
Record
61%
284-182 (466)
Invested
$420
Value
$394.8
PnL
-$4.2
Record
52%
1161-1067 (2228)
Invested
$166.45
Value
$155.14
PnL
-$11.32
Record
56%
18370-14706 (33076)
Invested
$115.3
Value
$122.2
PnL
+$6.9
Record
72%
1537-588 (2125)
Invested
$85.3
Value
$69.94
PnL
-$4.35
Record
50%
1694-1680 (3374)
Invested
$211.96
Value
$12.7
PnL
+$2.63
Record
48%
6236-6891 (13127)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.