Will the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 65¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$6.4K
$91.98
64.1¢ → 65¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
649h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anoin123 | Yesavg 63.6¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$65.48 | 47% 474-534 (1008) |
ME Melody626 | Yesavg 63.7¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$59.13 | 58% 705-521 (1226) |
SB sbimbg | Yesavg 69¢ | $470.48 | $434.06 | -$27.27 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4<$100 | Yesavg 72¢ | $36.08 | $70.02 | -$7.7 | 73% 3600-1329 (4929) |
CO cowcat<$100 | Yesavg 60.7¢ | $68.9 | $67.11 | +$2.62 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Noavg 35.6¢ | $9.91 | $9.65 | -$0.27 | 40% 174-265 (439) |
Invested
$2,982.75
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$65.48
Record
47%
474-534 (1008)
Invested
$2,805.81
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$59.13
Record
58%
705-521 (1226)
Invested
$470.48
Value
$434.06
PnL
-$27.27
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Invested
$36.08
Value
$70.02
PnL
-$7.7
Record
73%
3600-1329 (4929)
Invested
$68.9
Value
$67.11
PnL
+$2.62
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$9.91
Value
$9.65
PnL
-$0.27
Record
40%
174-265 (439)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.