Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 66¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$8.5K
$1.5K
54.1¢ → 66¢
+22% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
33h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BigMackyG | Yesavg 47¢ | $3.3K | $4.7K | +$1.3K | 20% 108-423 (531) |
ME Melody626 | Yesavg 63¢ | $3.4K | $3.6K | +$164.96 | 58% 705-521 (1226) |
11 11122<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $57 | $66 | +$9 | 44% 1401-1817 (3218) |
LI lineth<$100 | Yesavg 71¢ | $63.9 | $59.4 | -$4.5 | 41% 245-350 (595) |
SB sbimbg<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $33.24 | $34.59 | +$1.36 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $12 | $8.5 | -$3.5 | 50% 7969-8009 (15978) |
BigMackyGInvested
$3,331.35
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
20%
108-423 (531)
Invested
$3,448.63
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$164.96
Record
58%
705-521 (1226)
Invested
$57
Value
$66
PnL
+$9
Record
44%
1401-1817 (3218)
Invested
$63.9
Value
$59.4
PnL
-$4.5
Record
41%
245-350 (595)
Invested
$33.24
Value
$34.59
PnL
+$1.36
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Invested
$12
Value
$8.5
PnL
-$3.5
Record
50%
7969-8009 (15978)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.