Will the Republican Party win the FL-18 House seat?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 92¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes92¢No8¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$23.97

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 92¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,513

Combined PnL+$58.97

No1 trader

Total Value$40

Total Shares500

Combined PnL-$35

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

394h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO cowcat	Yesavg 88¢	$624.8	$653.2	+$28.4	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
HO HotDogs	Yesavg 87.6¢	$478.55	$502.48	+$23.93	94% 442-28 (470)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 91.4¢	$100.5	$101.2	+$0.7	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
IM immanuelcan	Yesavg 83¢	$41.5	$101.2	+$6.9	53% 906-789 (1695)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$75	$40	-$35	56% 973-769 (1742)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 94.6¢	$35.16	$34.2	-$0.97	56% 14224-11030 (25254)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$624.8

Value

$653.2

PnL

+$28.4

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

HotDogs

Yes

Invested

$478.55

Value

$502.48

PnL

+$23.93

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$100.5

Value

$101.2

PnL

+$0.7

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

immanuelcan

Yes

Invested

$41.5

Value

$101.2

PnL

+$6.9

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

RememberAmalekCTR<$100

Invested

$75

Value

$40

PnL

-$35

Record

56%

973-769 (1742)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.16

Value

$34.2

PnL

-$0.97

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

394h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.