Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 87¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 4

Yes87¢No13¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

-$94.15

Smart Money Entry

86.9¢ → 86.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes87%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares8,652

Combined PnL-$76.77

No3 traders

Total Value$49.46

Total Shares353

Combined PnL-$17.38

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

4451h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 87.1¢	$6.4K	$6.3K	-$78.02	61% 203-132 (335)
HO HotDogs	Yesavg 86.3¢	$948.99	$945.99	-$3	94% 442-28 (470)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 84¢	$207.82	$212.07	+$4.25	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 11.5¢	$12.27	$38.96	+$2.67	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
IM immanuelcanCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$68	$7	-$20.8	53% 906-789 (1695)
nicoco89CTR<$100	Noavg 10.4¢	$2.75	$3.5	+$0.75	65% 1075-583 (1658)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$6,360.44

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$78.02

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

HotDogs

Yes

Invested

$948.99

Value

$945.99

PnL

-$3

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$207.82

Value

$212.07

PnL

+$4.25

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$12.27

Value

$38.96

PnL

+$2.67

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

immanuelcanCTR<$100

Invested

$68

Value

PnL

-$20.8

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

nicoco89CTR<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.75

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

4451h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.9%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.