Will the Republican Party win the FL-27 House seat?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$144.55

Smart Money Entry

77.2¢ → 61.5¢

-20% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$796.51

Total Shares1,306

Combined PnL-$213.55

No2 traders

Total Value$428.46

Total Shares1,099

Combined PnL+$69

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

3527h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Seutervoinen	Yesavg 83¢	$785.01	$576.94	-$208.07	85% 311-57 (368)
PI piepedCTR	Noavg 36¢	$319.18	$345.78	+$26.6	42% 71-100 (171)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 60.6¢	$167.3	$182.66	+$0.05	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
bernardbulletinCTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$40.28	$82.68	+$42.4	69% 987-450 (1437)
Ryxon21<$100	Yesavg 70.9¢	$35.44	$30.5	-$4.94	71% 318-130 (448)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Yesavg 58.2¢	$6.99	$6.41	-$0.58	52% 2050-1868 (3918)

Seutervoinen

Yes

Invested

$785.01

Value

$576.94

PnL

-$208.07

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

piepedCTR

Invested

$319.18

Value

$345.78

PnL

+$26.6

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$167.3

Value

$182.66

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

bernardbulletinCTR<$100

Invested

$40.28

Value

$82.68

PnL

+$42.4

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

Ryxon21<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.44

Value

$30.5

PnL

-$4.94

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.99

Value

$6.41

PnL

-$0.58

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

3527h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.4%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.