Will the Republican Party win the IA-01 House seat?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 93¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$134.24

Smart Money Entry

86.6¢ → 93¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,530

Combined PnL+$185.41

Yes4 traders

Total Value$223.11

Total Shares3,187

Combined PnL-$51.17

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

682h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 92¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$42.06	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Noavg 71.9¢	$488.83	$632.18	+$143.35	61% 203-132 (335)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 7.9¢	$50.86	$126.36	-$5.99	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$80.62	$72.73	-$7.89	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.9¢	$27.53	$16.38	-$11.15	40% 174-265 (439)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.2¢	$17.93	$7.63	-$26.14	52% 2050-1868 (3918)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$1,680.91

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$42.06

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Invested

$488.83

Value

$632.18

PnL

+$143.35

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$50.86

Value

$126.36

PnL

-$5.99

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.62

Value

$72.73

PnL

-$7.89

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.53

Value

$16.38

PnL

-$11.15

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.93

Value

$7.63

PnL

-$26.14

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

682h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.2%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.