Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 83¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$5.3K
$386.97
76.7¢ → 82.5¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
707h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PO poptree | Yesavg 81¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$63.3 | 70% 390-171 (561) |
CO cowcat | Yesavg 58.5¢ | $445.12 | $626.65 | +$181.53 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 83¢ | $46.47 | $595.26 | -$1.86 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
LI lineth | Yesavg 63.5¢ | $366.44 | $478.91 | +$109.59 | 41% 245-350 (595) |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR | Noavg 16¢ | $107.2 | $117.25 | +$10.05 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
PE peepeepooppoop | Yesavg 58.3¢ | $157.09 | $45.51 | +$24.36 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
Invested
$3,370.09
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$63.3
Record
70%
390-171 (561)
Invested
$445.12
Value
$626.65
PnL
+$181.53
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$46.47
Value
$595.26
PnL
-$1.86
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$366.44
Value
$478.91
PnL
+$109.59
Record
41%
245-350 (595)
Invested
$107.2
Value
$117.25
PnL
+$10.05
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
Invested
$157.09
Value
$45.51
PnL
+$24.36
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.