Consensus PnL $332K · win rate 70% (290–124, n=414) · hand-picked wallet · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$332.2K
Record
290W / 124L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 414 settled
Batting Avg
56.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#750
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
11,503
Markets
578
Volume
$14.3M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 6 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $22K · now 71¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $14K · now 70¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?No $4.5K · now 35¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (69% of 38)
- Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat?Yes $3.5K · now 83¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes $2.3K · now 35¢ · in at 30¢with the consensus (71% of 28)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes $2.0K · now 33¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (76% of 38)
Specialties
438 settled consensus markets · held side won 70% at an average entry of 62¢- Politics
+15 pts
side won 82% of 101 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +6%
- Mentions
+12 pts
side won 87% of 109 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +6%
- Elections
+2 pts
side won 45% of 146 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +5%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 26%(won 11% of 116)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 49% of 35)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 85% of 41)
- 70¢ and up: 56%(won 99% of 246)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.