Will the Republican Party win the OH-15 House seat?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 61¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$2.3K
$932.17
33¢ → 61¢
+85% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
490h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 30.6¢ | $924.9 | $1.8K | +$920.6 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Noavg 40.9¢ | $132.2 | $166.32 | +$34.12 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 42¢ | $139.87 | $135.51 | -$4.36 | 36% 16059-28074 (44133) |
IM immanuelcan<$100 | Yesavg 74¢ | $29.5 | $65.34 | -$10.51 | 53% 906-789 (1695) |
CO cowcat<$100 | Yesavg 69.3¢ | $45.05 | $39.65 | -$5.4 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Yesavg 67.8¢ | $15.09 | $12.81 | -$2.28 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
Invested
$924.9
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$920.6
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$132.2
Value
$166.32
PnL
+$34.12
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
Invested
$139.87
Value
$135.51
PnL
-$4.36
Record
36%
16059-28074 (44133)
Invested
$29.5
Value
$65.34
PnL
-$10.51
Record
53%
906-789 (1695)
Invested
$45.05
Value
$39.65
PnL
-$5.4
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$15.09
Value
$12.81
PnL
-$2.28
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.