Will the Republican Party win the VA-02 House seat?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 91¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$1.4K
-$107.09
87.9¢ → 91¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
443h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 87.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$33.31 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
CO cowcatCTR | Yesavg 16.4¢ | $156 | $90.53 | -$65.47 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
 Ryxon21CTR | Yesavg 18¢ | $164.46 | $86.8 | -$77.66 | 71% 318-130 (448) |
EA Eatpraylove<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $56.27 | $59.54 | +$2.94 | 57% 766-585 (1351) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $5.67 | $5.67 | +$0 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $1.02 | $0.81 | -$0.21 | 40% 174-265 (439) |
Invested
$1,148.26
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$33.31
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
Invested
$156
Value
$90.53
PnL
-$65.47
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Ryxon21CTRInvested
$164.46
Value
$86.8
PnL
-$77.66
Record
71%
318-130 (448)
Invested
$56.27
Value
$59.54
PnL
+$2.94
Record
57%
766-585 (1351)
Invested
$5.67
Value
$5.67
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$1.02
Value
$0.81
PnL
-$0.21
Record
40%
174-265 (439)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.