Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 92¢ · $727 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$726.85
$43.23
81.9¢ → 92¢
+12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+12 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Late
4825h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
20 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HotDogs | Yesavg 85¢ | $201.92 | $218.55 | +$16.63 | 94% 442-28 (470) |
 GayPrideCTR | Noavg 8.5¢ | $200.54 | $188.74 | -$11.79 | 49% 357-367 (724) |
CO cowcat | Yesavg 77.2¢ | $100.4 | $119.6 | +$19.2 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
PE peepeepooppoop | Yesavg 79.9¢ | $91.68 | $101.21 | +$9.53 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
 bernardbulletin<$100 | Yesavg 87¢ | $87.45 | $92.48 | +$5.03 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
 Gohst<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $1.64 | $6.27 | +$4.64 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
Invested
$201.92
Value
$218.55
PnL
+$16.63
Record
94%
442-28 (470)
GayPrideCTRInvested
$200.54
Value
$188.74
PnL
-$11.79
Record
49%
357-367 (724)
Invested
$100.4
Value
$119.6
PnL
+$19.2
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$91.68
Value
$101.21
PnL
+$9.53
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
bernardbulletin<$100Invested
$87.45
Value
$92.48
PnL
+$5.03
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
Gohst<$100Invested
$1.64
Value
$6.27
PnL
+$4.64
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.