Will the Republicans win the Hawaii governor race in 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$8.7K
$8.06
98.9¢ → 99.2¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 99.2¢ | $8.0K | $7.9K | -$8.94 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 99.1¢ | $428.14 | $428.12 | -$0.01 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
TH TheFOMCGambler | Noavg 93.3¢ | $260.84 | $277.2 | +$16.36 | 76% 102-32 (134) |
CO cowcat<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $19.36 | $21.8 | +$2.45 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $1.78 | $3.43 | -$1.8 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.04 | $0.04 | +$0 | 72% 6827-2621 (9448) |
Invested
$7,950.77
Value
$7.9K
PnL
-$8.94
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
Invested
$428.14
Value
$428.12
PnL
-$0.01
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$260.84
Value
$277.2
PnL
+$16.36
Record
76%
102-32 (134)
Invested
$19.36
Value
$21.8
PnL
+$2.45
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$1.78
Value
$3.43
PnL
-$1.8
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.04
PnL
+$0
Record
72%
6827-2621 (9448)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.