Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$159.29

Smart Money Entry

93.7¢ → 98.3¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,029

Combined PnL+$171.58

No3 traders

Total Value$13.76

Total Shares786

Combined PnL-$12.29

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

1580h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKen	Yesavg 94.6¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$101.07	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
TH TheFOMCGambler	Yesavg 91.1¢	$730.56	$931.03	+$67.45	76% 102-32 (134)
HO HotDogs<$100	Yesavg 90.6¢	$36.25	$39.31	+$3.06	94% 442-28 (470)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 3.2¢	$10.11	$5.53	-$4.58	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 2.9¢	$6.09	$4.46	-$3.08	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
probabilityCTR<$100	Noavg 3.9¢	$8.4	$3.77	-$4.63	42% 1368-1924 (3292)

ImJustKen

Yes

Invested

$2,887.45

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$101.07

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

TheFOMCGambler

Yes

Invested

$730.56

Value

$931.03

PnL

+$67.45

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

HotDogs<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.25

Value

$39.31

PnL

+$3.06

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$10.11

Value

$5.53

PnL

-$4.58

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$6.09

Value

$4.46

PnL

-$3.08

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

probabilityCTR<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$3.77

PnL

-$4.63

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

1580h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.