Will the Republicans win the Maryland governor race in 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$2.8K
-$26.41
99¢ → 99.3¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
1798h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 99.1¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | -$0.9 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
 elmcap2 | Noavg 98¢ | $200 | $198.5 | +$2.5 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $30.99 | $33.07 | +$2.08 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
OL OLOTH<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $30.81 | $30.9 | +$0.08 | 96% 757-31 (788) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $21.6 | $21.68 | +$0.07 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
 DEGENKHANCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $35.88 | $5.64 | -$30.25 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
Invested
$2,506.86
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$0.9
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
elmcap2Invested
$200
Value
$198.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
Invested
$30.99
Value
$33.07
PnL
+$2.08
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
Invested
$30.81
Value
$30.9
PnL
+$0.08
Record
96%
757-31 (788)
Invested
$21.6
Value
$21.68
PnL
+$0.07
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
DEGENKHANCTR<$100Invested
$35.88
Value
$5.64
PnL
-$30.25
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.