Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 92¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4

Yes92¢No8¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$209.2

Smart Money Entry

88.5¢ → 91.8¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,320

Combined PnL+$206.96

No2 traders

Total Value$33.04

Total Shares424

Combined PnL+$2.24

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

1033h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 92.5¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$18	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
CO cowcat	Yesavg 76.9¢	$665.99	$898.58	+$160.22	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
PE peepeepooppoop	Yesavg 71.5¢	$210.04	$274.27	+$65.21	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100	Yesavg 93.3¢	$44.78	$44.26	-$0.48	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Noavg 8.2¢	$23.72	$22.84	-$0.88	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
probabilityCTR<$100	Noavg 5.6¢	$7.28	$10.2	+$3.12	42% 1368-1924 (3292)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$3,699.99

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$18

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$665.99

Value

$898.58

PnL

+$160.22

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

peepeepooppoop

Yes

Invested

$210.04

Value

$274.27

PnL

+$65.21

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.78

Value

$44.26

PnL

-$0.48

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

HourglassCTR<$100

Invested

$23.72

Value

$22.84

PnL

-$0.88

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

probabilityCTR<$100

Invested

$7.28

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$3.12

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

1033h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.1%

91.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.